Dealmakers in the Americas are breathing again – up to a point. No doubt many faces were turning blue even as many states turned red, until the uncertainty of the US election was finally settled. But to say that the new administration brings certainty is pushing it; the US is not the Americas, still less the world, and geopolitical tensions involving places such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and China continue to muddy the waters.

Still, the view is clearer than before. We’ve been exploring the prospects for the coming year in our on-demand webinar, the 2025 Global M&A Outlook for the Americas, produced by the Financial Times in partnership with Datasite. Here’s a brief overview of some of the topics discussed by panelists John Hofmann, Melissa Sawyer, Jeb Slowik, and Mark Williams, with FT moderator Antoine Gara.

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Lighter touch = brighter prospects?

Predictions may be a fool’s game, but one thing everyone seems sure of is that the next US administration will adopt a lighter regulatory touch than its predecessor. This should mean fewer interventions by regulators, particularly in antitrust reviews. Thus deals involving vertical integrations, or those with a labor market impact, should enjoy a much smoother and swifter ride, with the focus being more on regulating traditional horizontal mergers. This should result in more predictable timelines for deal approvals, which in turn is likely to spur an uptick in the number of M&A transactions that kick off.

That said, we shouldn’t expect an entirely hands-off regulatory environment. State attorneys general will remain vigilant, especially regarding any transactions that might impact consumer prices.

Global pressures remolding American M&A

Caught between the more laissez-faire US environment and a more complex global picture, the M&A market shows signs of changing shape. Most pressing is the ongoing political tension between the US and China, with the potential this brings for higher tariffs and trade wars. China is simultaneously undergoing a tightening of regulation, tipping the see-saw even further. A likely outcome is a rise in deals aimed at establishing a foothold in the US, to ensure market access and serve as an export platform.

Beyond this, geopolitical strife involving Ukraine, the Middle East, and Russia (to name only the obvious ones) has further potential to restrain or reshape M&A activity. An increase in onshoring, near-shoring and other protectionist practices looks to be on the cards.

Rise of the corporate strategic deal

Our webinar audience was asked to consider where they saw the most opportunities for M&A in the Americas. The top choice was corporate strategic transactions – a judgement shared by the expert panelists:

Several factors underpin this expectation. The first is the aforementioned new US administration, and its expected business-friendly stance. Along with the hope that the new policies will support growth and stability, there is the trend in falling interest rates that have already helped the US economy to swerve a recession; in short, dealmakers feel their luck has changed and they mean to ride it. Corporations too have more confidence to pursue their M&A growth strategies, with less risk of being hamstrung by the regulators.

Nevertheless, a shrewd air of caution remains, as businesses and dealmakers alike wait and see how the new administration’s policies work in practice. Looking beyond corporate strategic deals, there are hopes too that private equity will enjoy a resurgence, putting some of its pent-up capital to work. Pressure from longer-held portfolio investments is pushing PE funds to look for both buy and sell opportunities, which is why divestitures, exits, and carve-outs are also seen as big areas of opportunity.

Sectors to watch

Both our webinar audience and our panelists agreed that there were two standout sectors looming over 2025: energy & utilities, and pharma, medical & biotech:

Again, the big energy buzz relates directly to the US election – specifically, the expected policy shift back towards traditional oil and gas, and a corresponding squeeze on renewables. Renewable energy firms may be driven to consolidate in response, while fossil fuels enjoy a controversial renaissance. An added complication is what Europe will make of it all – the direction of travel there is all ESG-focused, so European investors may look away from the US, even as non-US energy firms seek to merge with US-based ones to establish a presence. All of which points to a flare-up of cross-border activity in energy.

Pharma, medical & biotech also featured prominently on the radar, contrasting sharply with TMT which was largely disregarded – despite being one of the most active sectors generally, and especially in recent years. Some audience members may be overlooking the huge potential impact of AI on pharmaceutical research, and how deals involving AI assets may drive a lot of pharma activity going forward.

How to make deals happen in 2025

So much for predictions – but what will be the key in practice to getting deals across the line in 2025? We asked our webinar audience, and the results were an interesting split:

Narrowly, the top priority appears to be local market knowledge and connections, but this is almost tied with the need for strong valuation analysis and expert negotiation. On closer inspection, however, these two factors essentially amount to the same thing. Only through in-depth knowledge of a market can dealmakers arrive at an accurate valuation of an asset; only through such accurate data can they negotiate with authority and confidence; while connections are paramount in getting those negotiators to the table in the first place. Regardless of any other factors, old-school dealmaking skills are where it’s at.

The biggest challenge may be the market’s recent state of inertia. Though momentum is now building, a dearth of deals has seen a large amount of money chasing too-few opportunities. More assets should come on the market as private equity funds seek to rebalance their holdings, but there is still a gap between buyer and seller expectations. Though financing has become cheaper thanks to rate cuts, the cost of capital remains a major issue in M&A valuations. Deal flow can take some time to catch up with the rising availability of debt, so this ship may be slower than expected to turn around. Nevertheless, we can expect a 2025 with busier and more dynamic dealmaking than we’ve seen for several years.